Slower wage growth data boost bonds

In December, 223,000 jobs were added, which was more than the 200,000 jobs predicted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 28,000 jobs were lost in October and November as a result of data revisions for those two months. From 3.6% to 3.5%, the unemployment rate decreased.  

The Stock and Bond markets both reacted positively on Friday to the data on wage growth, as it reflects less wage-pressured inflation, which is what the Fed is looking for.

Jobless Claims Decline but Holidays likely Skewed Data

It's likely that the number of claims filed would have been higher if it weren't for the holidays as the most recent Initial Jobless Claims data covered the week of Christmas. While continuing claims decreased in the most recent week, they have already increased by 330,000 since the start of October, according to data taken the week before Christmas. This is another indication that hiring may be slowing down, and it may be getting more difficult for people to find work after being fired.

Home Prices Still Expected to Appreciate this Year

Although CoreLogic has reported slightly negative readings month to month, they still forecast nearly 3% appreciation nationwide over the next year, which can be significant for wealth creation. The return on investment from leverage would be 30% if anyone purchased a $400,000 home with 10% down and gained $12,000 in appreciation.

IMF Issues Recession Warning 

IMF Managing Director Kirstalina Georgieva, said, “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. 2023 will be a "tougher" year than 2022 because “the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously.”

We will likely have more than a third of the globe in a recession if the U.S. enters a recession as it accounts for a large portion of the global GDP.